Market Commentary
A New Fed Regime: Warsh, Policy Direction, and Treasury Market Consequences
May 11, 2026 | LPL Research
As of early May 2026, the Fed stands on the cusp of one of its more significant leadership transitions in recent memory. Jerome Powell’s term as chair concludes on May 15 after guiding the central bank through the post-pandemic inflation surge and a rate-cutting campaign seemingly on hold, and Kevin Warsh — a former Fed governor, investment banker, and vocal critic of post-2008 monetary policy — appears poised for confirmation. Powell has signaled he will remain on the Board of Governors for an "indefinite period" until the ongoing investigation concludes with finality, providing continuity but explicitly declining any “shadow chair” role. His role as Fed Governor ends January 2028.
AI Wave Continues to Power Technology Earnings Boom
May 4, 2026 | LPL Research
A frenzied week of macroeconomic data and big earnings news offered glimpses under the hood of both the U.S. economy and some of corporate America’s highest profile companies. Here we’ll focus on the latter, as last week brought eagerly anticipated quarterly results from mega-cap artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers Alphabet (GOOG/L), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT), as well as Apple (AAPL). While scrutiny on capital investments remains high, takeaways from results broadly leaned positive, in our view.
American Industrial Renaissance: Fact or Fiction?
April 27, 2026 | LPL Research
The “American Industrial Renaissance” is an investment theme investors and allocators alike have probably been pitched several times, or at the very least heard about. Supply chains for manufactured goods have evolved to become more complex, while U.S. manufacturing employment as a share of total employment has steadily declined, leaving policy makers to grapple with the ramifications of a shrinking manufacturing base. Facing effects ranging from structural employment shifts to fragile supply chains to national security, over the last decade, Washington has been both vocal and active about bringing manufacturing back stateside.
Rethinking Fixed Income Allocation in a Multi‑Polar World
April 20, 2026 | LPL Research
As we wrote in our recent Rate and Credit View, the case for global bonds has strengthened as the structure of fixed income markets — and the sources of risk within them — have become increasingly asymmetric. The U.S. bond market represents less than half of global fixed income outstanding, yet many portfolios remain overwhelmingly concentrated in U.S. Treasuries and credit, effectively tying outcomes to a single fiscal authority, a single central bank, and domestic yield curves. Expanding beyond U.S. borders meaningfully enlarges the opportunity set. Non‑U.S. developed markets and emerging economies operate under differentiated monetary regimes, demographic profiles, and business cycles, creating dispersion in yields, duration profiles, and policy paths that can be harnessed through active allocation.
The Economy Takes Multiple Shocks in Stride
April 13, 2026 | LPL Research
Outside of energy commodities, capital markets posted a downbeat March as cross-asset volatility spiked in response to the outbreak of hostilities in the Mideast, and kicked off April in similar, choppy fashion before posting a swift bounce following last Wednesday’s two-week ceasefire agreement. While a positive breakthrough, it may still be a little too early to sound the ‘all clear’ as the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained. Don’t forget, behind today’s headlines, the economy is still dealing with negative trade and immigration shocks and a positive artificial intelligence (AI) shock.
Lessons From Past Conflicts for Today’s Stock Market
April 6, 2026 | LPL Research
As strikes on Iran continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, it’s clearly too early for market watchers to stop thinking about geopolitical risk. As discussed in recent commentaries but worth repeating, history shows stocks often recover quickly from wars and other military engagements, especially when economies are resilient and earnings fundamentals remain strong. Improved valuations, the strong earnings outlook, and a still-normal level of volatility suggest the risk‑reward backdrop for stocks is getting more favorable. That said, we don’t have market capitulation signals flashing (washed-out selling), nor do we have any more clarity on how the Strait of Hormuz opens up. For now, we believe the best course of action for investors is to be patient and wait for a better entry point to add equity risk.
Earnings Likely to Grow Double-Digits Again; Will Markets Care?
March 30, 2026 | LPL Research
Earnings drive stock prices over time, but not all the time. Clearly, we’re in an environment where stocks are moving on developments in the Mideast and related moves in oil prices and interest rates. At the risk of writing about something that markets may not care much about right now, here we share some thoughts on the upcoming earnings season and the earnings outlook for the rest of the year.
Private Credit Under Pressure: Liquidity Mismatches in an AI-Disrupted Cycle
March 23, 2026 | LPL Research
Corporate credit markets have become unsettled about the potential for advanced agentic AI tools from firms such as Anthropic and OpenAI to automate functions across legal, analytical, marketing, and sales workflows, effectively targeting the software as a service (SaaS)/enterprise software space.
Why Oil Prices Matter Less — But Still Move Headline Inflation
March 16, 2026 | LPL Research
Lower oil “intensity” — less oil used per dollar of economic output — means energy shocks have a smaller impact on growth than in past decades. And from the supply side, the U.S. is now a net exporter of petroleum products. Because we produce more than we import, the economy is less affected by volatile oil prices than during the 1970s and ‘80s, for example.
Markets Tested as Iran Conflict Continues
March 9, 2026 | LPL Research
It’s difficult to separate the human and emotional side of war from the economic and market impacts. Without minimizing the human element, we focus on markets here. From that perspective, the energy market is the primary way through which this crisis will affect markets globally. Oil and natural gas production and transit have already been disrupted, sending prices sharply higher. If these disruptions are severe and long lasting, they have the potential to influence inflation expectations, weigh on business confidence, and elevate volatility across asset classes, all of which will likely translate into lower stock prices. Simply put, the more intense and prolonged the geopolitical shock, the larger the likely market impact.
How LPL Research Thinks About Dividends
March 2, 2026 | LPL Research
The idea of lying on the beach while your money works for you is often idealized in the financial media and by financial professionals alike. And why not? Investors love passive income, whether it comes from interest payments via fixed income securities, rental income from a real estate investment, or dividends from a stock portfolio. Our focus is on dividends, and understanding different approaches investors can incorporate into equity allocations. In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, we analyze different equity income strategies, explain why we believe incorporating quality makes sense, and review technical charts to understand what’s potentially on the horizon for the near-term performance of different equity income strategies.
LPL Research’s 2026 Strategic Asset Allocation
February 23, 2026 | LPL Research
Our Strategic Asset Allocation is the long‑horizon blueprint that guides portfolios across market cycles. For 2026, we maintain a modest, but slightly reduced, underweight to total equity risk, reduced domestic small caps, increased exposure to developed international and U.S. large value equities, and maintain a purposeful allocation to real assets and select alternative investments. Core high‑quality fixed income remains the anchor. We are measured with longer-duration Treasuries given less stable correlations, which supports a more balanced risk posture at a time when the compensation for taking equity risk is fair but not abundant.
From Bubble Fears to Disruption Risk: The New AI Market Narrative
February 17, 2026 | LPL Research
Wall Street narratives rarely stay still, and recent weeks have underscored how quickly sentiment can change as perceived new information challenges the status quo. Widely discussed anxiety over a potential artificial intelligence (AI) bubble fueled by relentless capital spending on data center infrastructure has now transitioned into a broader set of worries about industry‑level disruption driven by rapidly advancing AI platforms. The software sector has been in the eye of this storm, with legacy enterprise vendors suddenly confronting fears of displacement. That concern has ignited a negative feedback loop that is fueling a ‘sell now ask questions later’ backdrop in the market.
Five Reasons the Run in Emerging Markets Could Continue
February 9, 2026 | LPL Research
After a stellar 2025 in which emerging market (EM) equities returned 34%, 2026 is off to a good start with the MSCI EM Index up 7% year to date. Last year’s near doubling of the S&P 500 return was driven mostly by a weakening U.S. dollar, which propped up EM returns, but attractive valuations and artificial intelligence (AI) investment played a role. This week we highlight five reasons we’ve warmed up to EM.
Energy Shock Expected to Hit Prices Harder Than the Economy
May 18, 2026 | LPL Research
Headlines surrounding the Middle East have dominated investor attention since late February. While uncertainty remains elevated, diplomatic negotiations have supported equities, even as fixed income and commodity markets continue to reflect potential risks.
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